BTN Predictions: Week 12 vs. San Diego State

Derek

I think it would be safe to bet that NOBODY predicted what was going to happen last week at New Mexico.  I said  that after a season of predicting blow-outs it would be a close game, but that is about all I got right.  This week it is back to Blow-out city for me.

Rocky long says there is no reason to be intimidated by Boise State or The Blue™ and to be fair, he shouldn’t be.  His Aztecs are one of only three teams with an active winning streak against Boise State (Arkansas and WSU are the other two). But the past two Boise State teams were different as we all know, and if Rocky thinks the games are going to go like they did in 2012 and 2013 he is better off playing the University of Washington.  This is a new era of Bronco.  This team needs no more motivation than the past two years, and the way they continue to develop and get better each week every team we play should be a bit nervous.  Harsin’s system is coming together, and on top of that we have not lost on the blue since SDSU in 2012.  There is some special energy in that new football facility, and I have no doubt that they will continue to Protect The Blue. Add in the bitter cold weather that our team has practiced in and we have all the ingredients for a blow-out.  Sorry Rocky, the mystique and intimidation of Boise State and Albertsons stadium is back. This team is  not just going to go HAM on you, this team is going to go full #HAMPanetHoth on you.  Boise State 45 SDSU 17

Noel

Last week was pretty fun, wasn’t it? Although the triple option is no joke, I’m sure Rocky Long has spent part of the week installing it at San Diego State.  The Aztecs have a great running back duo and could probably pull it off for a play or two. You know, just to freak Bronco Nation out.  But all jokes aside, despite having two good backs and a great receiver, the quarterback play is what kills the Fightin’ Rockys.  And, since Boise State’s quarterback play has been pretty ok recently, that’s where the difference lies. Grant may not have a monster game like last week but he’ll do well enough to destroy SDSU’s defense which leaves them vulnerable to getting stuck in the way of the Jay Train.  I’m going to say, Boise State 51, SDSU 24. The Blue Turf Monster bites back!

Tami

That New Mexico game was a total stunner. Were you not entertained? I was incredibly wrong in my pick for that one, so let’s hope for better luck this time. Look, SDSU is a pretty good team. Not spectacular, but they do have scoreboard on Boise State right now. I believe this game is going to be like the last 2 – coming down to special teams. Last week’s game doesn’t give me a whole lot of confidence about defending a big return especially well, but being at home in the cold in front of a blackout crowd, roaring and stomping on those bleachers seems to give the Broncos a mojo that just isn’t being recreated well on the road. Boise has played through adversity this season and has proven itself to not roll over when things get dicey. I like the odds of Boise getting a defining win on The Blue, but I don’t think it’ll be a blowout. Broncos – 38, SDSU – 31.

Heath

Weather.com right now says at kickoff we will be looking at 18 degree weather. The question is do you believe that it will play a factor in the game? For me, cold won’t change much in a game. It is the wind and precipitation that gets most players. Right now it looks like all is well on that front, the fans will just have to fight frigid temperatures. With that in mind I actually believe Boise State is going to jump on SDSU early and the Aztecs will struggle to keep pace. San Diego State has a solid defense, but this team has been off the charts at home. Jay Ajayi says this game is personal and I believe him. SDSU struggles to throw the ball and it will cause them to not be able to keep up with the Broncos and their intense furious pace I believe they will come out with. Final score, Boise State 42 San Diego State 20.

Gage

Brrrr… That is what the San Diego State players will be saying repetitively for 4 quarters Saturday. Weather will no doubt have a factor in this game & i’d like to believe the Broncos have an edge in that department. If it is near 18 degrees at kickoff, like it supposed to be, the Aztecs may reconsider football altogether.

Yet, if this game doesn’t scare you as Broncos fan, you may be teetering on the side of overly optimistic a tad much. Your fear shall not come from the Aztecs team itself; instead, it should come from the situation, the Broncos kryptonite, and November.The Broncos are the upset target each game, here on out. Every opponent, even if inferior will get up to try to beat them, e.x. New Mexico. …. San Diego State has the Broncos number somehow, someway. Losing two years in a row to a single team is unheard of in Bronco Land. The Aztecs will arrive on The Blue with swagger and confidence knowing they are capable of defeating the Broncos. …. November…nothing needs to be said about this atrocious month in regards to Boise State Football…the history speaks for itself.

As usual, if I predict a blowout win, it’ll be nail-bitter; if I predict a tight game, it’ll be a blowout. So… for the sake of my health and not wanting some form of heart disease at 50, I will predict a close game. REVERSE JINX DO YOUR MAGIC.  Boise State 27 San Diego State 21

BTN Predictions: Week 11 vs. New Mexico

Derek

Every dog has its day. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  Derek gets a prediction right (close?).

I have predicted blow-outs in pretty much every game this year, and FINALLY I was right.  I predicted a 42-23  blowout victory for the Broncos over the Cougars in our last game, and I was correct about the blow-out, and only off by a TD or so on both sides of the score.  So

So do I keep on keepin’ on and continue with my ways?

Nope.

Although the match-up against the Lobos of New Mexico may be screaming blow-out again, until Boise State can put together a dominating performance on the road I am going to have to go with a close game.  I have a feeling both teams are going to ground and pound (well, I know UNM will – that is all they know how to do), which will lead to a lower scoring, close game.  I am going to say that Boise scores first and that the game is never really in doubt, but due to the style of play we are going to see, the final score will look closer than the game really was.  I am going Boise State 31 UNM 17. Of course if it is another blow-out I will be extremely happy!

Noel

I’m going to have to go with Derek on this one for two reasons: Like him, Bronco Nation hasn’t put together a complete road game all season and, secondly, it doesn’t matter if the team is home or away but triple option teams are hard to get off of the field.  I know, there was a bye week to prepare but unless the team has players that run it as efficiently as New Mexico, the preparation comes up short.  That being said, the Lobos’ defense is pitiful.   Jay Ajayi will have a big game, Grant Hedrick will manage and not throw picks, and Sperbeck/Roh will have a touch down apiece.  My prediction: Boise State 45, New Mexico 21.

Tami

Today, I am feeling optimistic. Sure, there are valid points up there from my compatriots about option football meaning the game is going to be closer than we think…elaine yada yada

The fact remains that the Boys in Blue need to EAT after that last bye week, the coaches will have the guys as prepped as possible to face that offense, and 2012 was the only time in the history of the match-up that the Lobos put more than 20 points on a scoreboard vs. Boise State. I think the guys come out fired up and New Mexico are the ones going to get torched. Boise State wins 55-10.

Gage 

Does there really have to be bye weeks or even worse, dreaded off-seasons.. I like Boise State. I like football. I like Boise State Football. Since I like those things, I’m entitled to want them infinitely, correct? Therefore I feel as though I deserve Boise State Football every week … forrrrrrever.

The Broncos opponent this week is an under polished New Mexico team that can pack a surprise punch if not careful. The Lobos can run the ball, and do so effectively. They rank 5th in the nation at rushing yards per game (304 YPG). Rather impressive for a team that is ultimately one-dimensional. 74 passing yards per game!!! PER GAME.

With that being said, the only way I see the Broncos allowing the Lobos to stay in this game for 4 quarters and potentially win it; would be another turnover catastrophe similar to the Broncos other two losses.

Thankfully, I do not foresee that, I believe Grant Hedrick has found a groove and will continue to operate with the precision and decision-making he has in the past 4 games (knocks on wood ……. still knocking). The Broncos defense will load the box and stop the run as they have extremely well thus far. If all goes to plan, this will be over early 3rd quarter, but does anything ever go to plan? Broncos 48 Lobos 17

 

Heath

Late to the party so I won’t even try to examine the game. I will just say Boise State 49 New Mexico 24.

BTN Predictions: Week 9 vs. BYU

Logo1Derek

I am pretty bad at predicting.  I am really good, however, at being an optimist.  Each week I predict impending doom for our opponent – our Broncos will finally put together a complete game, completely dominate, and the result will be a blowout of epic proportions.  Each week, we show flashes of brilliance. Sometimes it is on defense.  Sometimes it is on offense.  It has yet to be both at the same time for an entire game yet.  The Fresno State game was about as close as we have come, but a fumble in our own red zone by Dallas Burroughs changed the flow and made the game closer than it should be.  A young team, a new coaching staff with new schemes  -we are bound to have some growing pains.

If you tried to predict this game a few weeks ago, you might have predicted a blowout, but by the wrong team.  Things sure have changed.  Taysom Hill goes down, and what do you know BYU is on a three game losing streak.  It feels like Boise State is slowly trending up while BYU is in a complete nose-dive down.  This game should be a close one (Vegas says it is a seven point win for the Broncos), but I can’t change my ways now, right?  After weeks of having faith that my team is going to go #HAMPlanet on a team I can’t say we are going to play a tight game against a wounded animal.  So here it is – we FINALLY put it all together – our offensive line lays down the tracks for the J-Train, Grant Hedrick has another solid game passing, our defensive line sacks Christian Stewart six times, and Jeremy McNichols takes one to the house on a kick return. It wont be a blow-out of epic proportions, but this game will never feel close.  Boise State 42 BYU 23.

Noel

I’m a homer.  I always will be.  I have no problem always picking the Broncos.  If we were habitually on the losing side of games, I might change my tune. But, this isn’t the University of Idaho (I had to get a dig in.) and we are home favorites for a reason.   The Blue Turf is despised by everyone outside the program.  Haters give a plethora of explanations like “camouflage” and “ugliness”.  I say because it has an aura around it.  It feeds the Broncos.  It gives an extra glue between the fans and the team.  Boise State needs that atmosphere to win this game.  Grant is efficient, our defense gets a score, the crowd creates dumb penalties for the Cougars, and the Broncos win, 38-24.  #HAMPlanet

Tami

I really hope this game is a blowout, for a myriad of reasons. I want to see all too smug, local BYU fans in their Bronco gear the rest of the season, after Boise destroys them. I want Coach Mendenhall to again throw his team under the bus in the media in the postgame. Sad BYU fans throwing a fit after a week of borderline nasty smack talk would be stuff that legends are made of. I want to see a systematic dementing of BYU’s entire offensive and defensive schemes. A truly raucous Bronco Albertson’s Stadium will be required because the Cougars, despite all the underdog talk of a program at the brink, will most certainly bring their A game. It’s going to be a fight and since I have to pick, I guess BSU wins, 28-21.

Gage

The Broncos are at home, yes, stating the obvious, but thus far on the season that means one thing…. one. very. important. thing. Jay Ajayi balls out at home. He’s averaging 5.9 YPC with 7 TD’s. Jay is the Broncos rock, period. He is NUMBER ONE in the country for total touches; we go as he goes. *On pins & needles every time he fights for extra yards and takes a big hit* … ‘Get up baby, get up’

Going off what Derek mentioned above, I am also waiting for a week where the Broncos piece it all together. Could it happen this week, maybe. But my sloppy, unreliable, and usually wrong intuition has me feeling otherwise… I think the Taysom Hill-less Cougars will put up a good fight, preventing a lopsided Bronco victory – hang around for 3 quarters or so and make the final score look closer than it actually was. Broncos 31 BYU 17

Heath

I am not exactly sure how to look at this game. BYU has not been great without Hill and if Nevada can beat them, so can we, right? Boise State doesn’t lose at home, Jay Ajayi is a different person on “The Blue” and yet I find myself worried. I guess that basically sums up this season though. The crowd should be intense tonight and I think that gives us a big boost. This game is quietly becoming a solid rivalry that could be great for years to come. Rivalry games however tend to be close, at least the better rivalries do. Because of that, I going to say Boise State 34, BYU 28. As great as the Cougars defense has been against the run Jay Ajayi is going to get his tonight. I also trust Hedrick at home much more than I do on the road. The question of this game will be our defense against BYU’s offense. In a weird turn of events from the start of the season I know. But BYU is going to air it out against us tonight. If our defense can  step up, I am confident we can win this game.

Also of note, I hate BYU, and I just wanted to end on this. Few schools get my blood boiling the way BYU does. Idaho and Nevada probably hold a higher rating in the overall “hate” index, but BYU and their fans do everything they can yearly it seems to pass them. Go Broncos!

BTN Predictions: Week 8 vs. Cal State – Fresno

Derek

We are half way through the season and we have certainly seen some ups and downs from this team.  It certainly makes it tough for us to predict.  Last time I did not really predict how the game would go – just that emotion alone would win.  I was right. It was a tough game, going back and forth with lots of scoring, but ultimately emotion won out, and you could tell by the post-game celebration.

Emotion will play a part in this weeks match-up against Fresno State as well. I am sure that losing by one point left a bad taste in the mouths of the players, on top of the fact that Fresno seems to think it is a new era in the rivalry.  Unlike last weeks game however, we are at home on the Blue, and do not have to deal with the opposing team’s emotion of protecting their home field.  I also feel like this is the week that the Broncos finally put together a complete game.  Fresno has had an ugly season up to this point. On Friday night, it will get uglier.  Boise State 56 Fresno 12

Tami

Boise State appears to be on the verge of their first truly complete game of the season. Like, any minute now. (I’ve been calling for this since UConn, so ¯_(ツ)_/¯.) I think the boys in blue will be sufficiently hyped after last season, and in an emotionally and physically good state coming off a bye. The game is in the friendly confines of Bronco Stadium, and Fresno is not a good football team. The Bulldogs are coming off a rather sad loss to UNLV in OT and I’m guessing the crowd and the lights and Boise State’s level of execution will mess with them. Boise’s stout defense should bother QB Brian Burrell into coughing up some turnovers. They also must contain Fresno’s RB Marteze Waller and dangerous WR Josh Harper, but Fresno isn’t exactly Ole Miss and it’s hard to be really concerned. The Broncos offense has been more consistent in the red zone since Air Force, and shouldn’t have an issue putting points on the board against the Dog’s porous D. Of course, it’s just as possible that Fresno plays outta their mind, but even then I think the crowd will help swing momentum Boise’s way when they really need it. BSU wins by a bunch. Broncos 48 – Fresno 10.

Heath

Being at home gives me all the confidence in the world. There is just something special about Boise State when they play Fresno in Boise. And because of that, I don’t see any scenario where Boise State loses their first time ever to Fresno on “The Blue”. Jay Ajayi is positioned to have another massive game, and the Fresno State offense is going to serve up big chances for our defense to make plays. That being said, I am leaning towards a convincing win in the range of 42-20 Boise State.

Noel

I’m not going to lie, I’ve been horrible at this (in case you haven’t noticed. So, I asked the Mrs. for her opinion this week.  We both agree that the Broncos will win this game. I am worried about WR Josh Harper but that’s really all.  Their run game won’t be able to muster anything.  If the Boise State offense gets going, will the Bulldogs be able to stop it with any regularity? FRES-NOPE.  Grant has a decent game and hits 2 deep balls.  SWR will score once.  And Jay gets at least 2 scores.  I say the final will be 42-24.  In case you’re wondering, Mrs. H said 42-31.

Gage

Fresno, Fresno, Fresno… I love you so. Some of the most prolific — high-scoring — nail-biting — gut-wrenching  games have taken place between these two teams. One being last year. Which unfortunately reminds me Fresno squeaked out a 41-40 victory. I happen to break my phone that night… coincidence….?

This year should be a different story. Derek Carr gone – Fresno’s potency gone with. Their defense is dismal at best … giving up 50+ points in four of their seven games so far. YIKES. Somewhat like the Broncos … Fresno’s offense is struggling to achieve consistency. Already mentioned by everyone above, Fresno has one serious threat — Josh Harper. If Cleshawn Page and the rest of the Broncos secondary are able to contain him, the Milk Can shall belong to the Broncos once again. Boise State 49 Fresno 17

 

 

BTN Predictions – Week 6: At Nevada

Derek

After the Louisiana game a couple of weeks ago, it appeared that Boise State was starting to put it all together.  The defense continued to dominate, Grant Hedrick had a solid game, and we were seeing signs of the ball being spread around to more than just the “Big Three”.  There were definitely reasons to be optimistic heading into the Air Force game.  I expected a tough, close game – especially considering how the Broncos have fared on the road recently – but was not expecting to be dominated like we were by the Falcons.  Many people used the word “debacle”, and it truly was.  The results of the past two games truly make it hard to predict this one.  Was the Air Force game an anomaly? Was it just some growing pains of a new staff and the players continuing to learn together?  Or was that what this team is – average at best – going to win some and lose some?  If you know me, read my writings, or follow me on Twitter, you know that I am an optimist – to a fault maybe – and that will not change.   I see no reason to think negatively or doubt what myself, others, or this football team are capable of.  I am concerned about going on the road still, however this game typically has more Bronco fans attending than any other road trip.  I also think the Air Force game was a wake up call to both the coaches and the team.  I am not going to go into specifics about what players are key, which sides of the ball have the advantage, or how this game goes.  This game will be an emotional one, both because of who and where we are playing, and what happened last week, so this is a purely emotional pick.  Boise State bounces back, and continues to grow under Harsin and staff.  Boise State 31 – Nevada 21.

Tami

Nevada is a pretty good team. The Wolf Pack’s only loss so far came at the hands of Arizona, the team that beat Oregon at Autzen on Thursday night. Boise is a very talented team who is still trying to find consistency. The performance last week at Air Force makes this game quite hard to predict – I know what I want to see out of the Broncos, but a big run game, some nice deep throws to open up the field for Jay, and a shut-down defense may be more than we can hope for. The X factor is the fact that Nevada is the closest thing we have to a rivalry, and the hate is palpable. Losing to them would be a tremendous blow. So, assuming that Grant has his confidence back, the coaches are on and have everybody ready, and that some of the guys that have been out injured are able to come back (hi there defense), Boise should be able to make this a game. I’m homering it up and calling for a win for the good guys: Boise State 28 – Nevada 24. 

Dan Goodale, please be ready. We’re going to need Dead Center Dan to go to Reno and kick a ball just to watch a man and his middle fingers die.

Noel

I’m on the fence about this one. Last week was a horrid week on the field for Grant Hedrick and, if he paid any attention to the fan base, he didn’t have a good time post-game either.  His mindset is one of the keys to the game.  If his head is on straight, the offense will be sufficient. The other key is the defense. Coach Harsin and CoachYates can take some cues from Arizona’s defense on gap-integrity. and how to contain a “running” quarterback. Fajardo can eat teams up on the ground. Here’s how I see it – Broncos offense performs and the defense destroys the Nevada running game.  Broncos win 35-20 and I lob double-birds at Nevada fan on the TV.

Gage

This game might be a defining point in an already up and down season. As Derek pointed out – after beating the Ragin’ Cajuns – Boise State fans felt like the Broncos might have their mojo back, potentially leading to a chain of W’s. I felt this way myself. Short lived serenity to say the least. Air Force kindly provided a needle to Boise State’s balloon of confidence and the Broncos offense inserted it for them; with not 1.. not 2.. not 3.. but 7 turnovers.

I’ve tossed and turned all week about this game. My stabbing paranoia has me thinking the Broncos will under perform again and Nevada will win – allowing their egotistical fans to boast it in the Broncos face 2010 style. Then, on the other hand, my usual homerism has me thinking the Broncos will storm into Reno with a “F this” mentality – F last week, F the season opener, and F you Nevada. Checks to make sure I’m not a 13-year-old girl. 

I’m so atrocious at predicting final scores or even coming close (check out my previous predictions) therefore I’m going to plead the 5th on guessing this weeks final score and do so because of my superstitious nature. I will predict a close game though. Maybe even OT? Yikes. I don’t know if my heart can handle OT. But… if there are more than three “wtf Grant?” moments, prepare for another sad week in Bronco land.

Heath

I am not sure what to even say here honestly. I look at the Air Force game and then I look at the this game and I get worried. When you watch the turnovers of Hedrick my concern was a lot of throws were just inaccurate. Going into Reno the pressure on him is going to be a lot, can he handle it? I guess we will find out, but I don’t have a great feeling about it. Even with all that though, I have to remind myself I trust Harsin when it comes to the QB position and this can be no different. My other major concern going into Reno is looking at Jay Ajayi’s stat line on the road this year. If you follow me on Twitter you might have seen it, but if not here is what you need to know.

Jay Ajayi at home averages 6.1 yards per carry this season – on the road this season, 3.4.

So for us to win, Jay has to break this bad start to the road this season, and Hedrick has to be a completely different QB. Oh and I can’t forget the defense has to continue to dominate at an incredible level… Yeah, I think you guys know where I am going with this…And that is despite all this, Boise State thrives in positions like this, this is what makes BSU great. Broncos win 34 – 17.