BTN Predictions: Week 12 vs. San Diego State

Derek

I think it would be safe to bet that NOBODY predicted what was going to happen last week at New Mexico.  I said  that after a season of predicting blow-outs it would be a close game, but that is about all I got right.  This week it is back to Blow-out city for me.

Rocky long says there is no reason to be intimidated by Boise State or The Blue™ and to be fair, he shouldn’t be.  His Aztecs are one of only three teams with an active winning streak against Boise State (Arkansas and WSU are the other two). But the past two Boise State teams were different as we all know, and if Rocky thinks the games are going to go like they did in 2012 and 2013 he is better off playing the University of Washington.  This is a new era of Bronco.  This team needs no more motivation than the past two years, and the way they continue to develop and get better each week every team we play should be a bit nervous.  Harsin’s system is coming together, and on top of that we have not lost on the blue since SDSU in 2012.  There is some special energy in that new football facility, and I have no doubt that they will continue to Protect The Blue. Add in the bitter cold weather that our team has practiced in and we have all the ingredients for a blow-out.  Sorry Rocky, the mystique and intimidation of Boise State and Albertsons stadium is back. This team is  not just going to go HAM on you, this team is going to go full #HAMPanetHoth on you.  Boise State 45 SDSU 17

Noel

Last week was pretty fun, wasn’t it? Although the triple option is no joke, I’m sure Rocky Long has spent part of the week installing it at San Diego State.  The Aztecs have a great running back duo and could probably pull it off for a play or two. You know, just to freak Bronco Nation out.  But all jokes aside, despite having two good backs and a great receiver, the quarterback play is what kills the Fightin’ Rockys.  And, since Boise State’s quarterback play has been pretty ok recently, that’s where the difference lies. Grant may not have a monster game like last week but he’ll do well enough to destroy SDSU’s defense which leaves them vulnerable to getting stuck in the way of the Jay Train.  I’m going to say, Boise State 51, SDSU 24. The Blue Turf Monster bites back!

Tami

That New Mexico game was a total stunner. Were you not entertained? I was incredibly wrong in my pick for that one, so let’s hope for better luck this time. Look, SDSU is a pretty good team. Not spectacular, but they do have scoreboard on Boise State right now. I believe this game is going to be like the last 2 – coming down to special teams. Last week’s game doesn’t give me a whole lot of confidence about defending a big return especially well, but being at home in the cold in front of a blackout crowd, roaring and stomping on those bleachers seems to give the Broncos a mojo that just isn’t being recreated well on the road. Boise has played through adversity this season and has proven itself to not roll over when things get dicey. I like the odds of Boise getting a defining win on The Blue, but I don’t think it’ll be a blowout. Broncos – 38, SDSU – 31.

Heath

Weather.com right now says at kickoff we will be looking at 18 degree weather. The question is do you believe that it will play a factor in the game? For me, cold won’t change much in a game. It is the wind and precipitation that gets most players. Right now it looks like all is well on that front, the fans will just have to fight frigid temperatures. With that in mind I actually believe Boise State is going to jump on SDSU early and the Aztecs will struggle to keep pace. San Diego State has a solid defense, but this team has been off the charts at home. Jay Ajayi says this game is personal and I believe him. SDSU struggles to throw the ball and it will cause them to not be able to keep up with the Broncos and their intense furious pace I believe they will come out with. Final score, Boise State 42 San Diego State 20.

Gage

Brrrr… That is what the San Diego State players will be saying repetitively for 4 quarters Saturday. Weather will no doubt have a factor in this game & i’d like to believe the Broncos have an edge in that department. If it is near 18 degrees at kickoff, like it supposed to be, the Aztecs may reconsider football altogether.

Yet, if this game doesn’t scare you as Broncos fan, you may be teetering on the side of overly optimistic a tad much. Your fear shall not come from the Aztecs team itself; instead, it should come from the situation, the Broncos kryptonite, and November.The Broncos are the upset target each game, here on out. Every opponent, even if inferior will get up to try to beat them, e.x. New Mexico. …. San Diego State has the Broncos number somehow, someway. Losing two years in a row to a single team is unheard of in Bronco Land. The Aztecs will arrive on The Blue with swagger and confidence knowing they are capable of defeating the Broncos. …. November…nothing needs to be said about this atrocious month in regards to Boise State Football…the history speaks for itself.

As usual, if I predict a blowout win, it’ll be nail-bitter; if I predict a tight game, it’ll be a blowout. So… for the sake of my health and not wanting some form of heart disease at 50, I will predict a close game. REVERSE JINX DO YOUR MAGIC.  Boise State 27 San Diego State 21

Attack The Opponent: University of Louisiana – Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

The Ragin’ Cajuns have one of the most solid mascots in the NCAA. Unfortunately, their football team isn’t as awesome as Cayenne, the red pepper with the intense stare that serves as ULL’s unofficial mascot.
My anger comes from having these flappy useless bird arms.

AHH-YEE rhymes with intensity!

Why unofficial? Apparently the Ragin’ Cajuns started as yet another southern team named the Bulldogs. That lasted until 1963. Then apparently they still kept the bulldog around as a mascot until the early 80’s when they trotted out….a chicken. Now, it’s not like the Broncos are a super terrifying mascot, but at least we aimed for majestic wild horses instead of poultry.

fabcajun

The Cajuns are currently 1-2, with their only win coming against the Southern Jaguars which is a wonderful school that I had no idea existed until about 30 seconds ago. The Broncos and the Cajuns did have a common opponent this season in Ole Miss, but that didn’t end kindly for either school. ULL fell to Ole Miss last week 56-15. In week 1, Boise lost to the Rebels as well, 35-13.

There is no big cause to be concerned though. While it appears that Boise’s offense is bad in comparison just from the scores, the Boise offense that will show up this weekend on The Blue is a different animal than the performance put on at the Georgia Dome. Boise’s offense has more dimension now. ULL is going to have to do some serious UConn style work on defense to slow down Boise’s ground game, and seeing as our good friend Dr. Bo Wallace torched their pass D for 4 TD’s…well, as long as the Broncos bring their game, it should be a happy happy joy joy kind of night at Albertsons Stadium.

On the offensive side of the ball, ULL has either a very balanced or very sad attack, depending on your point of view. Their QB is Terrance Broadway, who has passed 516 yards this season and 4 TDs. Grant, on the other hand has 849 passing yards and 5 TD’s. Jay Ajayi has 344 rushing yards, which is only 49 yards shy of the rushing totals of the top two rushin’ Cajuns, Elijah McGuire and Alonzo Harris. Matt Miller has 90 more yards by himself than the Cajun’s top two receivers, Jamal Robinson and Gabe Fuselier. If the Broncos defense stays as sack/pick happy as they were last weekend, it’s going to be a very long day for the Ragin’ Cajuns.

I wonder if Albertsons bakery is going to provide refreshments?

 cupcake How you doin, Cupcake?

 While Boise and ULL have never played against each other before, they do now share a conference with our Vandal brethren to the north. Sorry, ULL, they really were raised in a barn, but only by their own wishes.

The Ragin’ Cajuns fans seem to be similar to any fan base who is 1-2 – gross overreactions by some, the temperate ones trying to talk everybody down, those who are angry…it’s all typical. They do, however, appear to be a fun-loving bunch with a good sense of humor, so maybe they’ll feel better about their chances in this game if we show them a good time tailgating. Boise State isn’t exactly LSU in the party department, but we understand the nuances of consuming breakfast burritos and Bloody Mary’s at 10 am. Besides, this guy looks like he’s pretty fun at a party.

youcandoitguy

ALLL MORNING LOOONG

There are a couple of things Boise should look out for. The first is fatigue. These guys have been back and forth across the country twice in 4 weeks, playing early two weekends in a row. At least the Broncos will finally be on their own time zone, but jet lag is a jerk that is out to ruin your day. If the Broncos don’t prep well, or are tired, this could turn into a trap. ULL does spread the ball around fairly effectively, statistically speaking. A slow start, failure to launch in the fourth quarter, further injuries, all of those things could lead to a game with more interest than we need or hope, with a Funbelt team in mid-September.

So, Saturday at noon, then. CBS SN. Homecoming weekend. The Broncos should get a nice win on one of the few warm weather weekends left of 2014. Hope to continue to see a more balanced attack, some gaudy yardage numbers wouldn’t be amiss either. The Ragin’ Cajuns are their own brand of misery right now, and their coming a long way to a loud, hostile place once the game begins. The Blue should be especially gorgeous this weekend, and while I hold no real animosity, I don’t think that Lafayette is the one that can spoil it.

Just want to say thanks to @keleka24 for covering me last week while I was indisposed. You’re #awesome!

Attack The Opponent: Ole Miss Rebels

Researching Ole’ Miss is a bit like observing a distant planet. 1562 miles, two time zones, a bunch of humidity, almost zero history, and a complete lifestyle difference are between Boise and Oxford. get some!

The old (probably) drunk guy dancing though, that is universal.

The year that Idaho became a state, Ole’ Miss was just forming their first athletic department. Boise wouldn’t field a football team for another 39 years after Mississippi boys first touched toe to grass in 1893. A storied program for sure, but the game coming up next Thursday has nothing to do with pedigree, conference affiliation, tenure, recruiting rankings, political leanings, or anything else outside of the 2014 Broncos and Rebels. The only people who know exactly who that is are with the programs, and the rest of us are left to wonder, wait, and fret. The Rebels are counting on tempo and speed to win this game. They love to throw nice little short passes, and a whole lot of them. Here’s their returning QB Bo Wallace’s stats from last season:

Set school records for total offense (3,701 yards) and completions (283) in a season … Completed 283 of 437 passes for 3,346 yards (third-most in school history) with 18 TDs and 10 INTs … Ranked third in the SEC and 26th nationally in both total offense (284.7 ypg) and passing (257.4 ypg) …

Yanno, just setting school records for total offense and completions, completing a good-but-not-that-good 65% of his passes for 18 TD’s. This is 7 yd per attempt though. They also scored 30 ppg last season. So, Boise’s D must be ready to defend the corner and not be afraid to hit somebody or fight for position coming over the middle to be able to intercept a few of those passes. The Rebel’s defense could be ridiculous, or it could be overblown SEC hype. There are 5 Rebel’s defenders on the All SEC watch-lists, the most notable being Pre-Season 2nd team All American Robert Nkemdiche. Or, as Broncos fans have seen before, this could be a bunch of SEC bluster and hype and the boys in orange could run them ragged and confused before halftime.

All of this remains to be seen, and exactly what we’ve all been waiting an entire off-season for. Rebels fans are apparently excited for the match-up, but talking a great big game as well. Both teams have pros and cons. Ole Miss has had strong recruiting classes recently and is coming off a reasonable performance last season, and Boise’s team is an unproven commodity with all the uncertainty in the program. Everything changed for the Broncos in December, and while those inside the program are telling us all the correct things it’s scary to not know what to expect. On the other hand,  Ole Miss has some questions in their run game – the guy listed at the top of the depth chart, I’Tavius Mathers, started exactly one game for the Rebels last season. Boise State will likely be deepest on defense, with a ton of experience in the secondary and a whole bunch of big, strong defensive linemen who are learning from what might be the best combo of knowledge, personality, and moustache on the coaching staff, Steve Caldwell. Boise State is of course going to live and die on the legs and ball control of Jay Ajayi and Grant Hedrick, but with the return of a fast paced, extend the field throwing game, this whole thing is going to be about which team can exploit the other’s weaknesses and really control the time of possession. Both teams can score prolifically in the correct defensive conditions, and both defenses look like they could be tough, at least on paper. Dead Center Dan Goodale needs to be as accurate as ever, and special teams had better be ready to go right off the bat. We might have a track meet on our hands next Thursday. We might also have a defensive battle.

I don’t doubt that Boise can put at least 28 points on the board, but can the guys hold the Rebels under that total? Vegas has Boise as ten point dogs, and while there are a few outlets calling for a return to the kind of winning everyone remembers out of Boise, most of the national consensus is that Boise is going to fall back to obscurity very quickly due to a whole bevy of excuses that Boise State fans are dutifully slicing and frying into Bronco Nation Brand Shoulder Chips. Screen Shot 2014-08-23 at 7.59.24 PM

Now available in Dill Pickle flavor.

There are a few things I need to see out of this game to be happy. First, I need to know that the Boise offense is unpredictable, prolific, and accurate. I would like to see a working, nasty blitz. Would love to see lots of tight end participation in the offense, and just one nice deep ball to a flying orange blur of Dallas Burroughs. I need Matt Miller to make a one handed catch in the back corner of the end zone. I need interceptions from the safeties and jarring hits from Jeremy Ioane. Antoine Turner needs to get a sack so I can be irrationally happy for him for a while.

This game could be the return of the sense of balance in the universe that Bronco Nation has been missing, or a tipping point where the bandwagon gets much lighter. Ole Miss has a lot to prove too. Recruiting rankings and conference affiliation can only carry a team so far, eventually the wins have to come or Coach Freeze is going to have to answer some questions. Their team seems like the type that could have discipline issues and leave a mass of flags and fan’s broken dreams in their wake. While this may not be the marquee game of the night, it certainly is the most intriguing. Hotty Toddy indeed, Rebels. Put on your blazers, ties, and sundresses, sip your bourbon, and get ready to watch that cute little team out of the Mountain West give you the fight of your team’s figurative lives opening weekend. Oh, and if Ole Miss happens to lose? It would be nice if they wouldn’t turn around and lose horribly to Vandy the week after. Strength of Schedule and all that.

Isn’t football great? I missed football. Let’s never have an off-season like that again. Attack_hug