Editors note: This simulation was posted before the news of Joe Southwick being sent home.
The scenario for each of these match-ups is a simple process, I take the current roster and set up multiple dynasties and simulate the seasons, to collect my data. To make sure I had a large enough sample size I simulated 7 seasons to gather the right information. To make it easier to follow I edited the roster to include actual names of the players and aside from that we are all EA sports. With each opponent I will try to give you a best case scenario, worst case scenario, and a possible outcome. Boise State is running out of a pistol offense to keep it as close to reality as possible.
Beautiful sunny weather made this Christmas Eve the perfect way to finish off a season that started with high expectations, but concluded with the loss of a coach. With an interim coach and a quarterback fully recovered from an ankle the Broncos took the field ready to end the season on a good note. With the opening possession the Broncos faltered while trying to adapt to so many new faces leading the program. Oregon State took their opening drive and ended with a long 61 yard pass to Hamlett from Mannion.
The Broncos made the necessary changes when Southwick and Company returned to the field and used a running attack and short passing to move the ball down the field. Southwick finished off the drive when he found Holden Huff open for a six yard touchdown and drawing the game even. The Beavers were then forced to punt the ball, and give the Broncos another chance for points before the end of the quarter. Boise State capitalized when Southwick found an open Matt Miller from fourteen yards away to give the Broncos their first lead of the game.
Very little points were scored during the second quarter until with 2:19 left before halftime. The Beavers were able to put together a successful drive and finished it off kicking a thirty-nine yard field goal. Boise State used the no huddle, and moved the ball closer to the opposition’s goal line with time winding down. Southwick slipped past a defender and ran in for a score from five yards away with 0:48 left in the half.
The opening drive of the second half proved to be unfruitful for the Beavers when Mannion found an open Bronco defender, turning the ball over. Jay Ajayi shouldered the load on this drive behind a powerful offensive line which gave him plenty of room to run. Southwick found Boldewijn open for a thirty-seven yard touchdown pass midway through the third quarter. Oregon State responded with a drive of their own when Brown ran in for the score from fourteen yards away. Boise State used a quick offense to get down inside Beaver territory and completed another successful drive when Ajayi scored on a six yard touchdown run.
With only fifteen minutes left in the game emotions started to get the best of players as plenty of penalties slowed down the scoring. Midway through the final quarter the Broncos got inside Oregon State territory and Dan Goodale kicked a twenty-two yard field goal. Immediately after the Beavers moved the ball down the field and Mannion found Cummings open on a twenty-six yard touchdown pass. With the final points on the board the Broncos had finished the season with one final victory and one more trophy for the trophy case.
Final Score: Boise State 38 – Oregon State 24
With two programs coming off what many would consider a disappointing season, the Hawaii bowl showcased teams ready to finish the season on the right foot. Early in the game both teams appeared to be out of sync from the longer layoff. Neither team found much success on the ground as defenses stopped the run time and time again. Oregon State ended the scoring draught towards the end of the first quarter when Ward made his way into the end zone after a two yard run.
The Broncos’ offense led by Joe Southwick continued to be slowed by the Beavers defense for most of the first half. Oregon State increased their lead when Mannion found Gwacham open for an eight yard touchdown pass. The Broncos finally found some success running the ball and capitalized when Devan Demas found the end zone after a two yard touchdown run. Boise State’s defense forced an Oregon State interception and Joe Southwick came back onto the field ready to lead.
Southwick used a balance passing attack and finished the drive when Boldewijn caught a five yard touchdown reception for the score. The Beavers returned to the field with under a minute before halftime and they didn’t disappoint. Mannion found Mullaney open for a forty-five yard touchdown pass with 0:05 left in the half.
Heading into the third quarter the Beavers held a 21-14 advantage and increased their lead when Ward again found the end zone, this time after a five yard run. Boise State was able to respond on their next offensive possession, but only with a field goal by Dan Goodale from twenty-seven yards away. On the final play of the third quarter Mannion found Cummings open for a five yard touchdown pass, increasing the Beaver lead.
Midway through the fourth quarter Matt Miller caught a four yard pass from Southwick which got the Broncos a little closer. Boise State went for the two point conversion and a batted down pass kept the points off the board. Shortly after Oregon State took advantage of smaller cornerbacks and Mannion found Smith open from twelve yards away for the score. With two minutes left in the game Jay Ajayi found the end zone after a one yard run bringing Boise State closer. The deficit was too much and the Bob Gregory coaching era had started 0-1.
Final Score: Oregon State 42 – Boise State 30
With many Bronco fans focused on the Chris Petersen departure and the Bryan Harsin hiring, the bowl game appeared to have been lost in the clutter. Opening up the game the Broncos appeared in sync and scored on their first offensive possession. Joe Southwick found Geraldo Boldewijn open for a five yard touchdown pass to give the Broncos the early lead.
Oregon State responded with a score of their own, a thirty-two yard field goal midway through the first quarter. The Broncos used their stable of running backs to get the ball inside Beaver territory. They finished off the drive with Southwick faking a hand-off to Ajayi and running in for the score.
Boise State again was able to put points on the board early in the second quarter when Southwick found an open Matt Miller from fourteen yards away and the score. The Broncos lined up for the two point conversion and used a little trickeration to add two more points on the board. Oregon State put up some points of their own when Mannion found Cooks open from twenty-yards out for his first score of the game.
Coming out of halftime the Beavers used a variety of passes to get inside Bronco territory before Woods ran for twenty-three yards and the score. Boise State appeared to continue to have their offense rolling only to get stuffed at the seventeen yard line and Dan Goodale kicked a thirty four yard field goal. The Beavers continued to attack the smaller cornerbacks all on the way to another score, this time a Mannion pass to Woods from six yards away.
Opening up the fourth quarter the Broncos held a slight advantage that was increased when Dan Goodale kicked another field goal, a thirty-seven yard kick. The Beavers mixed up their play calling and used a rushing attack from Woods to get inside Boise State territory. Oregon State was able to move the ball inside the ten yard line only to get stopped and forced to kick a twenty-six yard field goal.
Joe Southwick found Boldewijn open for thirty-four yard catch to set up first and goal for the Broncos from the three yard line. Jay Ajayi finished the drive off when he crossed the goal line with 7:15 left in the final quarter. Mannion completed four straight passes to Cooks to help lead the Beavers down the field. The Beavers had first and goal from the eight yard line and after three unsuccessful attempts kicked a short twenty-two yard field goal.
Boise State had the ball and with 4:45 left in the game leaned on the running game to move the ball down the field. The Broncos, after a seventeen yard pass to Kirby Moore, had first and ten at the eleven yard line. Jay Ajayi made quick work of those yards when he crossed the goal line to increase the Broncos advantage.
With 1:18 left on the clock the Beavers took the kickoff and returned it to the forty-two yard line, giving themselves great field position. Cooks again was on the receiving end of a Mannion touchdown pass, this time a thirty-eight yard score with 0:22 left in the game. After a failed onside kick attempt the Broncos had finished the season on a good note and were ready for the Harsin era to begin.
Final Score: Boise State 42 – Oregon State 37
Stats from game:
Joe Southwick: 35-49, 2 td – 1 int, 416 yards, 1 rush td
Jay Ajayi: 22 carries, 95 yds, 2 td
Matt Miller: 6 rec, 80 yds, 1 td
Geraldo Boldewijn: 6 rec, 101 yds, 1 td
Demarcus Lawrence: 3 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack
Head to Head:
Boise State 5 – Oregon State 2